Now that Microsoft has released the Silverlight Olympic data I hope we can put to rest the killer app equals instant ubiquity argument.
Often overlooked in all of the killer app dogma (or you can call it a smoking gun like Steve Gillmor) is the fact that adoption of Silverlight was event, rather than application, driven. It’s an important detail which we all need to remember and take advantage of. Real world needs / events drive our actions. They provide an opportunity to connect (Google’s holiday treatment of its logo) and fuel usage. YouTube’s user experience sure as hell isn’t driving use, but self-expression, narcissism and exhibitionism combined with low transaction costs for video self-publishing probably are. Very few of us are trolling for “killer apps” and even when confronted with a compelling design and experience we won’t be back unless there is a real need to drive use.
The Olympics are what I would call a disruptive event. An event with enormous audience breadth and compelling storylines that are information and rich media centric–right in the wheelhouse for RIA. When successfully leveraged they can precipitate dramatic rags to riches stories (very different from ubiquity). As an example, take a look at how JibJab successfully piggybacked on the presidential election cycle here in the States several cycles back and they continue to leverage holidays and other events.
Microsoft was smart to take advantage of the Olympics, but even that disruptive event fell way short of the adoption numbers we were hearing from them and the yellow press (yellow blogosphere just doesn’t roll off the tongue). It should be crystal clear to everyone that Silverlight won’t be a ubiquitous platform (98% penetration)
overnight or in the near term. They’re going to have to earn those stripes the same way the Flash Player did–slowly over time, developer by developer, site by site and viewer by viewer. There’s nothing wrong with that and it doesn’t mean the platform isn’t going to be successful. I wish them luck and hope for less hyperbole in the future.
2 Comments
You’re right about Silverlight having to earn its place - a good way to gain some developer support might be to add some features that are NOT in Flash, thus giving it a unique selling point. I don’t think it’s enough to just say “Hey, .NET guy - here’s your version of Flash - go be creative”, because you can’t make a winforms or ASP developer into an RIA developer over night. I’d love to be excited about Silverlight like I am about Microsoft XNA, but it just doesn’t have anything to make you go “Wow!”. If the two-state solution is going to work out as you suggest, I also think the two companies need to allow a bit of tools compatability - for example moving vector artwork between Illustrator/Flash, and Blend/Silverlight/XAML.
You’re missing the point, the Olympics proved a clear point, that end users are willing to download a plugin in order to view the event.
Flash currently has 8-18million people per day downloading Flash Plugin, that’s 7-17 times the worlds population per year hitting the “install” button. 80% of these people don’t get it via bundling/updater like solutions either. They get it from the AcitveX site found on Adobe.com
This is from Emmy @ Adobe her self may I add.
Adobe haven’t been challenegd until now and the real success story isn’t going to come from Events (they are just the big fish), the actuality of it all is going to come from OEM bundling or partnerships with CDN style networks.
Adobe haven’t got a story around this so they are keeping everyone locked on the 98% methodology - which has growing questions around it’s accuracy may I add.
Look beyond the matrix dude! :}