Mark Cuban sees no-model and a bleak future for video on the web, but I’m inclined to agree with one commenter at least.
Call it old media, or old software, but one thing is clear — neither seems to really know who the hell their audience / customers are. You see this reflected back in passive ads that fail to engage (why pay attention if what I’m watching has no relevance to me) and unsightly, uncompelling software that’s difficult to use.
It’s no longer possible to assume a broad and captive audience, but that’s a good thing if you’re a content creator, advertiser or software developer that has a deep understanding of who your audience is and where they’re at.
To pull a Clay Shirky, the real problem is that the distribution of video is no longer monetizable. Control of delivery guaranteed “final cut” over content creation and total leverage over monetization. Since relatively little could be known about the viewing audience (who was watching and their level of interest) only mass market content was financed and marketed to consumers and advertisers. This is any easy system to administer for distributors and advertisers, but is extremely inefficient.
Other factors also have contributed to the old model’s decline. Television replaced radio as the only game in town for a largely rural / suburban population, but has since been challenged by the increasing number of entertainment options available to a highly mobile and increasingly urbanized population. Combine these factors with the rise of social computing and interactive media and you have a lethal cocktail.
As with most things, I see a lesson in software development here. Old software assumes a broad, apathetic, if not quite passive, audience and tries to lock them into a one-size fits all model. Old software doesn’t really understand its audience, so it tries draw an audience by offering a smorgasbord of diluted features. Old software won’t be effective in making an emotional connection with its audience (beyond anger) and isn’t relevant enough to withstand cost or vertical pressure.
…at least that’s the way I see it. :-)